Prayers for pandemic flu

Elsewhere I have outlined those steps Churches and Christians need to take in order to prepare and respond to pandemic flu. I have also prepared a simple checklist for Christians and Churches

However as Christians, part of our response must be to to pray. By praying we are accepting the sovereignty of God. Here in the UK we are in the very earliest stages. We understand how terrified our brothers and sisters in Mexico must be, together with those in the United States and other countries.

I offer as a starter this prayer:

Lord we call to you in this, our moment of pain and fear.

We acknowledge that in many developed countries we have little understanding of the curse poured upon our brothers and sisters in poor countries when health and welfare break down.

We ask you to forgive us for those times that we have ignored the cries of those who live and die in poverty and disease.

We recognise now that we too will share the distress and bereavement that is the lot of many.

Lord we ask you to comfort those who mourn.

We ask you to be with those who suffer.

We ask you to be with all who fear.

We ask that you prepare those about to exchange time for eternity.

Lord, even at this late stage we ask that this swine flu will not become the feared pandemic.

We ask you to bless the work of all those who strive to limit its spread and devastation.

We thank you for the work of those employed in the civic and health services who will work in future weeks to care for those who are sick.

Lord we ask that you will enable us as Christians and Churches to play a full part in expressing our solidarity with all who care, suffer and mourn.

We ask for the gift of your Holy Spirit in order that we may provide the spiritual support to one another: those we know, those who are strangers.

We ask this in the name of your suffering son and servant, Our Lord Jesus Christ who gave his life that we may enjoy eternal life.

Update 01/05/09: The British Methodist Church has now issued its own official advice on how churches should respond to swine flu

Credit crunch improving church attendance, claims District Chair

There was an interesting article in yesterday's Eastern Daily Post.

The Rev Graham Thompson the local Methodist District Chair is quoted as saying: “We are getting more people in as they face redundancy and financial problems. People have invested themselves in work and been let down. They are looking for a spiritual area that won't let them down”

My feeling is that the recession still has a long way to go and many people are only just beginning to feel the impact. Here is the West Midlands we have been hit particularly hard. But I can see absolutely no evidence that this is being translated into increased church membership or attendance.

I'd be interested to know if other areas of the country have seen the phenomena observed by Graham Thompson.

Preparing the church for a flu pandemic

Yesterday's early post about the possibility of a pandemic flu outbreak led to a large number of "hits" on this site.


In my professional life I have advised organisations on how to manage and recover from pandemic flu outbreaks. Over the weekend I have therefore given some thought about how churches and Christians could respond, maintain their fellowships and even be of service to the community.


To summarise I have made an early "checklist".


Please note that the information about anti-viral drugs is only applicable to the United Kingdom.

The weekend news from Mexico and the US is grim: the influenza pandemic, long feared and long predicted may soon engulf the world.

If it does arrive in Britain we have probably between six weeks and two months before the first wave of infections reach their height. So June, July and August will be critical months. There will be a lull before a second wave develops a few months later. So there could be up to six or seven months of disruption to much of normal life, including that of the church.

Churches should not panic, but we should be preparing for a situation where up to 20 or 30% of our congregations, neighbourhoods and church officials could be ill all at once, with some dying.

It is expected that in normal circumstances most people will be off work for between seven and ten days. The vast majority will survive and then be immune from further infection.

The annual flu jab for seasonal flu will not be effective against the new strain and it will be sometime, if ever, before a mass produced inoculation will be available. Only those who have recovered from the strain of flu will be immune.

The government have carefully laid out plans to keep the public informed of developments and precautions as the infection spreads. They will issue advice about the advisability of holding regular services and meetings.

Basic hygiene will be a top priority. Anyone with a sneeze will be advised to use a tissue and then securely bin it. Hands will need to be washed constantly and handshaking will be discouraged: we will need to consider how we greet one another. Ministers and preachers will be especially at risk.

Where possible churches may need to use electronic forms of communication rather than hold meetings. It is time to get telephone and email lists up to date and think about setting up a page on facebook, a regularly updated blog or a website.

Precautions need to be taken to ensure that any information placed into a publicly available webspace is sensitive and respects confidentiality.

Without weekly services and collections many churches may struggle to meet their bills. Arrangements need to be made to fund the continuing work and cheques signed and counter signed.

Neighbourhoods may well turn to the local church at time of greatest need. Many people may need prayer and support during bereavement Church noticeboards need to be up to date with telephone numbers and email addresses. Some churches may offer prayer by telephone or a visit from a recovered victim, by then immune.

Those going down with flu will be offered an anti-viral drug. These will be issued from central points following a call to a national helpline. The drugs will be collected by unaffected or immune friends. Some housebound people and affected families may find it difficult to identify such a “friend”. This may be an opportunity for a church to offer a service to the community.

Possibly the biggest challenge will be burying the dead. Undertaking and mortuary services will be affected as staff go down with the flu and demand rises. Ministers will be no different. Within each circuit Ministers need to create a system of mutual aid, possibly working with colleagues from other denominations to take the funerals. Increased use should be made of local preachers and other lay workers.

However much the flu pandemic hits our developed nations it will be devastating for poorer countries. There will be much higher mortality with both economies and social structures under enormous strain. There will be a need to mobilise massive resources to assist recovery with organisations such as MRDF playing a key role.

As with all disasters there will be those who seek to capitalise on the spiritual and emotional distress. Churches need to prepare for the inevitable “if there is a loving God, why?” type questions.

Others may claim that the pandemic is God’s punishment for a whole range of sin. To some extent they are right: it has always been predicted that a pandemic would start among the poorest on God’s earth. Our sin has been to allow many to live in poverty.

We should pray

NB: This advice has no official status

Update 01/05/09: The British Methodist Church has now issued its own official advice on how churches should respond to swine flu

Checklist for churches preparing for a flu pandemic

1. Listen carefully to official advice about meetings and act accordingly. Investigate ways of keeping the spiritual life of the church going by electronic communications.
   

2. Ensure that address lists with telephone numbers and email addresses are up to date.

3. Ensure that information displayed on the church notice board and website is up-to-date. Offer at least two alternative contact people.

4. Discourage anyone who may be in the early stages of flu from attending church.

5. Support the campaigns to encourage hygiene – ban handshakes, hugging and encourage the use of tissues and handwashing.

6. Make flexible arrangements to enable the church’s work to continue. Have more than one key holder, have several alternative cheque signatories.

7. Make mutual aid arrangements with other nearby churches to assist with funerals, where possible including suitably qualified lay support.

8. Expect massive demands on church resources to assist those most severely hit in developing countries

9. Prepare spiritually for difficult questions, a lot of sadness and a great deal of opportunity.

10. Be ready to assist in the distribution of anti-viral drugs to the housebound and those living alone.

This is a summary of a slightly longer article This advice has no official status.

Update 01/05/09: The British Methodist Church has now issued its own official advice on how churches should respond to swine flu

Responding to a flu pandemic

Worrying news from Mexico: the long feared influenza pandemic may be on its way. In recent years I've been professionally involved in planning the response to a flu pandemic. I won't go into details here as there will be lots of official information released as the various alert stages are reached.

One aspect of this that ought to be considered is how the churches would cope. The strain reported from Mexico appears to be hitting the 25-45 year old age group hardest. The 1918 pandemic had a similar profile mainly because, some research now suggests, that it was lethal to people in the very early stages of tuberculosis.

For many of us a flu pandemic would simply be seven to ten uncomfortable days away from work. For the very poor and those suffering ill-health the outcome would not be so benign.

Early on churches will have to decide whether it is safe to continue meeting. It may be that we stagger services, no more than twenty at a time over several hours rather than one big service. Alternatively electronic communication could come into its own - Facebook pages, telephone prayer trees, and even conference calls, could be an important form of prayer support. It is possible to sing during a conference call!

Whatever happens the churches should continue functioning. The pandemic will be a time of great need both within the congregation, in each neighbourhood and especially in many developing countries.

Those who catch the infection in the early stages and survive, will be especially useful as they will have immunity from further infection and able to carry on the work of the church. But don't court infection, in its earliest stages it will be at its most deadly.

Basic hygiene such as hand washing would be essential. We will have to ban hand shakes as a way of welcoming people, thanking the preacher and during the peace.

In each locality there will be a greater demand on clergy and preachers to bury the dead. Clusters of churches will need to develop networks that will enable mutual aid so that clergy will be able to mix and match depending on their health.

The real challenge will be to provide pastoral support for the ill and bereaved at a time when resources will be at full stretch. Those who live alone will be especially in need of support. Churches will be the ideally placed to provide volunteers to pick up the anti-viral drugs for those who are housebound.

It is something to think about and I would suggest that once the WHO and Department of Health announce that a pandemic is imminent each church and denomination ought to consider their response.

As well as being a curse - some countries will collapse under the pressure - it could be a wonderful opportunity for churches to demonstrate God's love. But let's pray that it doesn't come to that.

UpdateIn view of the interest in this subject demonstrated by search engine referrals I have written an expanded post and a simple checklist. None of these items constitute official advice

Update 01/05/09: The British Methodist Church has now issued its own official advice on how churches should respond to swine flu

The Gambling Commission (6): Something to hide?

"A cloud as small as a man's hand is rising from the sea."

1 Kings 18:44

"What I tell you in the dark, speak in the daylight; what is whispered in your ear, proclaim from the roofs."

Matthew 10:27

Being a free-born Englishman is a great privilege - one for which many people have suffered from Wat Tyler, the Levellers, the Tolpuddle Martyrs and so on.

We English like to play with a straight bat. We respect honesty. We believe our word is our bond. We are not too fond of secrecy.

So when we are confronted with a massive gambling "industry" that is eating at the fabric or our families and communities we want to know something about those who are charged with regulating it.

In recent days I have been asking one or two pointed questions of the Gambling Commission. The more experience I have of the organisation, the more concerned I am about the way in which they do business.

Last year I asked a simple question about their hospitality from the gambling" industry". I expected the information given to me would have been made public by the Gambling Commission themselves. Not a bit of it.

Twelve months later I asked the same question. I hadn't at that point published the damning file of junketing by the regulators with those they regulated, as it mentions individuals and I was a bit reluctant. This year they decided not to risk it. They have refused me access to their hospitality register. So I published.

Now I wonder why they are so shy? Will we find that they have been getting rat-arsed night after night with their mates in the "industry". I don't know. But they do, and they've decided not to tell. So, I draw my conclusions.

But it's not just me that they don't want to keep in the picture. Remember the phrase "a good day to bury bad news"? Just look at how much information is published on Christmas Eve.

Last year they were asked by the Information Commissioner to put more information into the public domain. Instead of using this as an opportunity to open themselves up to public scrutiny, they simply decided to carry on publishing their brief minutes minus all the supporting papers which enable the reader to understand what is being said.

In recent weeks a whole series of simple queries have been left unanswered. The answers are not in the "public interest" (patronising cobblers) or would be too "expensive to process".

I've asked for the legal basis upon which the Gambling Commission refuse to allow the media and public access to their meetings. Once again silence. Not even a grown up acknowledgment from their "Corporate Affairs Officer". There is not legal basis. A public body as important as this should be open to the public and media.

I've started with a few interesting questions. I'm now meeting a blank wall.

Until just the last few days I would not have come to this conclusion: I'm certain that somewhere in the Gambling Commission someone has got something to hide.

I wonder what it is?

The Gambling Commission (5): it's party time!

The Methodist Church has just lost a heroic but futile battle to prevent rises in the minimum stakes and payouts for gaming machines.

We should have had a powerful ally in the Gambling Commission, supposedly established to protect vulnerable people. I have shown elsewhere that the Commission failed in their duty and failed the people most at risk from problem gambling.

The Gambling Commission "provides independent advice to government on gambling in Britain". But just how "independent" is the Gambling Commission?

Apparently the Commission enjoy a good party, and they are getting bigger. In 2006/7 they spent £19,000 of taxpayers money on "hospitality". In 2007/8 that had almost doubled to a staggering £37,000. At £15-£20 a head that's enough to feed over 2,000 guests, none of whom, I guarantee, were from families blighted by gambling. Just is case you doubt my figures go to the Annual Report 2007/8 page 52.

The Gambling Commission regulate the £85 billion gambling "industry" in Britain. As regulators any common sense approach would demand that the regulators are very careful in their relationships with those they regulate.

If by chance the regulators are unable to get back to the office for lunch or home for tea, they would be well advised to take a packet of sandwiches and a flask of coffee. The old saying is "there is no such thing as a free lunch".

The Gambling Commission have very specific statutory powers to regulate gambling. They must not be compromised.

However this does not seemed to have prevented members and staff of the Gambling Commission being well fed by those they are supposed to regulate. This blog made a Freedom of Information request for details of the hospitality received in 2007/8. A similar request has been made for 2008/9 but the Gambling Commission is refusing to process it. I will be lodging an appeal.

In the year April 2007 to March 2008, the ten commissioners and their staff enjoyed 108 meals paid for by the gambling "industry".

This was during the same period that the Gambling Commission spend £37,000 on "hospitality". Here are some examples of the gambling "industry" efforts to lobby their regulators.

For example on the 27 April 2007 Peter Dean, Tom Kavanagh, and Neil Walsh enjoyed lunch with the British Bingo Association.

On the 12 July 2007 Peter Dean, Tom Kavanagh, Roy Penrose, Bob Good had dinner provided by the British Casino Association.

On 1 August 2007 Graham Turner and David Bragg nipped down to Ladbrokes in Rayners Lane for a "working lunch". (Incidentally take a careful look at the Labrokes page and see if you can find where it offers the "responsible gambling" link).

Not to be outdone a fortnight later on the 14 August 2007 Bob Good, Keith Morgan and 8 trainee "CMs" slipped out of their Birmingham office, wondered down Broad Street to Grosvenor Casino for a rival "working lunch" As you can see from the casino's website this happy band didn't take the opportunity to point out that "responsible gambling" isn't even mentioned on their site. Presumably the quarter of a mile walk was necessary because there were no meeting rooms back at headquarters?

Neil Walsh was off to Stirling in bonny Scotland to meet Carlton Bingo for a "working lunch", immediately after the August Bank Holiday, but this was in the days before skype became widely accessible.

Peter Dean managed to squeeze in "lunch" on 11 September (it was not officially a "working lunch") with John Brackenbury the Chair of an organisation called Business in Sport and Leisure apparently a front organisation for the gambling and liquor industries.

October turned out to be a bit of a bumper month, all thanks to just one event over two days. Peter Dean, Tom Kavanagh, Ruth Callaghan, Rachel Lampard, and Jenny Williams enjoyed two lunches on consecutive days and a dinner courtesy of the Reno Nevada based gambling giant Harrahs who funded a conference on "responsible gambling"


Come November 2 we find that Sharon McNair and Hazel Canter need a "catch up meeting" over another working lunch kindly provided by their hosts the British Amusement Catering Trade Association which represents the slot machine trade.

If Bob Good, David Thornton and Peter Kirkbridge had a fireworks party in mind on November 5 they would have had to hurried home from a working lunch at the G Casino in Blackpool.

On November 7 the Gambling Commission go mob handed to lunch with the British Casino Association. Peter Teague, Jenny Williams, Ken Duncan were there as was Bob Good who had met the BCA in July for dinner. They must have a lot to talk about.

But blow me down apparently the BCA had over ordered the food! The very next day Jenny Williams, Peter Teague, Bob Good turned up for seconds and brought with them Tom Kavanagh, Hazel Canter and Peter Dean, to polish it off. How thoughtful.

November was quite a social whirl for the Gambling Commision. John Travers was the guest of the Racing Post at an awards ceremony for the "Bookshop Manager of the Year", Bill Butler had a breakfast provided by PKF and Jenny Williams found time to have breakfast with Project Associates.

There was a bit of a lull in the social whirl in December, but come the New Year, the working lunches began in earnest.

No less that ten Gambling Commissioners and staff made it to the Amusement Trades Exhibition in London on the January 22 2008 for a working lunch: Brian Pomeroy, Jenny Williams, Tom Kavanagh, Nick Tofiluk, Hazel Canter, Ruth Callaghan, Stuart McPhee, James Holdaway, Julia Mackisack and Erica Young. Presumably they all travelled second class from Birmingham?

Commissioner Tom Kavanagh can't get enough of the British Casino Association. Having enjoyed their hospitality in July and November he turned up at their Annual Ball for "dinner and entertainment" as the guest of Gambling Compliance. Now why on earth would a firm like that want to splash out on an independent regulator?

Before January was out yet another Gambling Commission mob handed lunch invite. Eight of them (Andrew Lyman, Bob Good, Andy Turrell, Barry Stone, Chander Kala, Anne Maginnis, Scott Marwick, and Wayne Pearson) have lunch courtesy of Progressive Gaming during a training course on the Endex system. Sadly for this happy band their day out was not to the company's headquarters in Las Vegas but to Oldham.

During the last two months of the year Jenny Williams met up with Goldman Sachs Gambling for dinner. Jenny Williams and Brian Pomeroy then had two lunches three weeks apart with the British Horseracing Authority.

Brian Pomeray fitted in lunch with the Association of British Bookmakers. Met up with an Anthony Jennens and finished the year in style by having lunch on two occasions in three days with the Business in Sport and Leisure group.

Now I know that my approach may seem a bit old fashioned but if the Gambling Commission need to meet officially with these bodies, shouldn't they just book a room in their headquarters at Victoria Square House Birmingham?

That way what is said can be minuted, there can be no suggestion of over fraternisation, and the public can have confidence that the Commission and the "industry" they regulate are at arms length. At the moment it seems that there is a happy little merry-go-round of social occasions which is just a little too close for comfort, with some Commissioners returning several times over to socialise with the same people

Boys and girls, the party is over.

There is no such thing as a free lunch.

We salute you Jack

I am sure many will be saddened to hear of the death of Jack Jones. He was a truly great man who I had the pleasure and privilege to meet on several occasions. They don't make them like Jack anymore.

The Gambling Commission (3): Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner

Maybe, just maybe, its because they are Londoners.

This blog can exclusively reveal the real level of diversity amongst those who supposedly regulate British gambling.

Forget any concept of the normal indicators of diversity. The bias is not about being White, Black, Anglican or Jew.

If you want a top job bringing in nearly £700 a day and getting stuffed full of free lunches as a member of the Gambling Commission, it pays to live in London.

And if you live in Wales or Scotland - don't even apply. There may be a Welsh Assembly Government, there may be a Scottish Parliament, but they have no say in gambling legislation and control.

The Birmingham based regulatory body has a shocking bias. The Virgin Trains from Euston makes a hefty profit bringing the well fed members up from London first class*

A Freedom of Information Act request reveals the following local authority areas are represented, but please note that they are not responsible to those local councils:

London
London Borough of Camden
London Borough of Islington
London Borough of Waltham Forest
London Borough of Lewisham
London Borough of Harringey (twice)
London Borough of Merton
London Borough of Lambeth

Rest of England
Cambridgeshire
Kent
Cheshire
West Sussex

Scotland
None

Wales
None

Even within England there is only one representative from outside the "Home Counties". There is no one from the South West, the North East, Yorkshire and Humberside, the East Midlands, or even the West Midlands where the Commission is theoretically based. That's 8 out of 12 from London or 66%. On that basis any other measure of diversity is nonsense.

The Gambling Commission was chosen from a tiny network of people, most of whom knew each other before the whole thing was set up. No wonder it is failing in its duties

The Gambling Commission stinks. No........ its pants!

*Note that I did try to find out more about their travel arrangements but the Gambling Commission wanted to charge me £450 for the privilege - what have they got to hide?

Bring your doubts

I'm off to lead the morning service at the Newton Road United Reform Church up in Great Barr.

Over the years I have built a firm friendship with the congregation there when they hosted the party to celebrate the launch of my book about local lad Francis Asbury.

Being "Low Sunday" I will preach about Thomas the Twin, known to history as "Doubting Thomas".

So many other sermons I've heard over the years have cast him in a role amongst the disciples lightly above Judas. I don't think that should be the case.

He arrived into a scene that must have bordered on hysteria. He may have tried to calm things down by asking to see the evidence for the resurrection. That is not a bad position. We should also be prepared to ask for evidence. Eventually we have to take that leap of faith but we should never be afraid to ask questions.

He stayed with the disciples during those difficult days. It must have been a difficult relationship. They claimed to have seen the Lord. Thomas remained skeptical. It says much for their relationship that they tolerated him and he tolerated them - perhaps a useful lesson when we are dealing with more troublesome church members and even other Methodist bloggers!

Finally we have the catharsis of the moment that he falls to his feet and says "My Lord and My God". Thomas goes on to do great things for the Gospel and dies a martyrs death.

Bring your doubts. Stay with the skeptics. Proclaim the Gospel.

At the edge of the NHS (2)

In March I posted about the problems facing my brother.

Basically he has primary liver cancer and the only treatment available that will prolong life and alleviate symptoms, sorafenib, is not yet available on the NHS.

I have had a thoroughly discouraging letter back from the Primary Care Trust. Apparently my brother has ceased to be a "local priority". I can't put in words how angry I feel nor explain the real sense of abandonment.

So far I have not identified the PCT concerned. I'm going to sit down and work out the best way forward.

Strange how we take it for granted that the NHS, for all its faults, will always be there for us and suddenly its gone, just gone.

Cleaning the church

Having a few days off has enabled me to spend a little more time on Church maintenance.

This morning I joined another member who had started the labourious task of cleaning the foyer carpet and the windows at the front of the Church.

Things have not been easy in recent years. It is a familiar story: decline in numbers, falling income, spiritual stagnation, lack of unity and much more.

Discouragement doesn't come in ones and twos - it comes in bucketfuls.

Earlier this year a former member suggested we had a "reunion" to bring together the many people who had benefitted from this fresh expression of Christian witness. We want to ensure the Church building looks as polished as we can.

However one or two people from our past have made it clear they believe that our Church will eventually close and question the wisdom of spending time maintaining our witness. They ask if there is really a "need" for the Church. I think I understood how Noah or Nehemiah must have felt as they undertook their respective building projects and were met with scorn.

As I stood, cloth in hand, cleaning the windows I wondered about those who believe the Church will, or should close. In reality I was praying. I felt very strongly that the Church had served many former members well. Several have gone on to the Ministry, others have grown into other congregations. I suppose I wanted to turn the clock back to 1995 or 1985.

Well that isn't going to happen; so does the Church have a future? Perhaps I may be happier in one of those big young middle class churches with all the latest technology and the buzz of the latest hymns?

Just at that moment I felt the futility of thinking that washing some grime off the front of the church building would really make a difference. The water and soap seemed ineffectual. Why bother with the grime, the carpet, the guttering, the wet rot, if all that will happen is that the Church dies?

Then I noticed how much cleaner and fresher the windows that Jim and I had cleaned looked. They were a stark contrast to the dark and dust laden windows still to be done. Our simple application of soap and water made such a difference. It was as if God was saying "do what you are called to do, I will do the rest".

Try to picture the situation. Our Church faces onto the main outer circle ring road in Birmingham. Within half a mile radius we have several thousand of some of the poorest people living in Britain. We are not a middle class Church, other local churches serve such people well.

Every few months we seem to become involved in the problems faced by asylum seekers and visa applicants. Whilst we were cleaning a man came to the door asking if we could provide him with something to eat. Our neighbours include ex-prisoners, people with mental health problems, those who can barely speak English, many who are the earliest victims of the recent economic down turn.

It was as if God was saying "Don't worry about those who have left, you are not maintaining the Church for the sake of the past. Our job now is to build a congregation and place of refuge for people who you have not yet met".

It makes sense. Does God want a whole series of broken down, scruffy buildings with a cross on them, simply to glorify the past? Or does He want us to follow the example of John Wesley and become people who don't simply go where we are needed, but go where we are needed most?

Our witness will be maintained not for those inside the building, but for those outside.

The Gambling Commission (2): failing the vulnerable

The more I find out about the Gambling Commission the less certain I am about what it actually does.

I know that its Commissioners are able to rake in up to £700 a day plus expenses.

Commissioners and senior officials also rather enjoy eating lots of free lunches with representatives of the gambling industry and a very, very small sample is listed here, with more to come into the public domain

But what do the Gambling Commission actually do? They are certainly not backing the campaign supported by the Methodist Church against plans to radically change the law as it applies to electronic gaming machines, their contribution to the ensuing public debate being very low key and at best neutral.

According to their website they have a threefold mission: (1) Keeping crime out of gambling; (2) Ensuring gambling is conducted fairly and openly; (3)Protecting children and vulnerable people from being harmed or exploited by gambling.

So when the Department of Culture and Media, under pressure from the lunchtime hosts of the Gambling Commission, decided that it would be a good idea to raise the stakes for gaming machines they held a wide ranging "review". Surprisingly the Gambling Commission were not among those responding.

However just a few months before the "review" the Gambling Commission was asked for its views. Eager to build up revenue they proposed yet more research as if they were not already aware of the damage gambling does to countless families.

They did undertake some "desk research" from Professor Mark Griffiths of Nottingham Trent University. He wasn't able to make many predictions about the British situation (hence the suggestion for more research) but on the basis of this research, limited though it was, the Gambling Commission were warned:

Par 1.4 much research in other jurisdictions (including prevalence surveys) suggests that there are associations between machines and problem gambling. In addition, data from many countries (including Britain) show that machine players are most likely to contact national telephone help lines.

Par 1.5 Evidence suggests that while gaming machines appear to appeal to many gamblers, they seem to be particularly attractive to those at risk of problem gambling and to those with a gambling problem. Compared to non-problem gamblers, problem gamblers tend to play on gaming machines more frequently and spend more time and money on them.

Par 1.6 Research from some countries suggests that the accessibility of gaming machines has some association both with the level of gambling and with problem gambling rates. In particular local accessibility has been reported to be relevant probably because many gamblers tend to gamble closer to home.

Par 4.1 there is some evidence that slot machines are the main source for problem gambling in adolescents (eg, Griffiths, 1995; 2002; Wood, Griffiths, et al, 2006)

Par 5.1 much research in other jurisdictions (including prevalence surveys) suggests that there are associations between machines and problem gambling.

Par 5.2 Canada found that although problem gamblers preferred to gamble on more activities than non-problem gamblers, the strongest relationship between type of activity and gambling problems was related to electronic gaming machine (EGM) participation (Wiebe et al 2006)....This finding is supported by several other studies.

Par 5.4 A recent overview of problem gambling in Europe by Hayer, Mayer and Griffiths (in press) included many studies about slot machine gambling. The recent national prevalence survey in Germany (Meyer & Hayer, in press) showed that of all the problem gamblers, slot machines were the most problematic with over 20% of all problem gamblers reporting that machine gambling was their primary type of gambling (9% gambling machines; 7% casino slot machines; 5% amusement with prizes machines). Other prevalence studies in Europe have reported that problem gamblers were most likely to be EGM players including Estonia (Lansoo & Niit, in press), Holland (Goudriaan, de Bruin & Koeter, in press), Norway (Götestam & Johansson, in press), Sweden (Jonsson & Rönnberg, in press) and Switzerland (Häfeli, in press). Other studies have also found similar results with adolescents reporting that the main type of problem gambling among adolescents is related to EGM play in several countries, including Great Britain (Griffiths, in press), Iceland (Olason & Gretarsson, in press) and Lithuania (Skokauskas, in press).

Par 5.8 literature reviews by both Livingstone and Woolley (2008) and Parke and Griffiths (2007) concluded that it is widely held in the available research that gaming machines are more likely to lead to problem gambling than other forms of gambling. They also suggested that a range of structural characteristics impact on gambling behaviour as pointed out for many years by other authors (eg Cornish, 1978; Griffiths, 1993; 1999a).

Par 5.10 A number of researchers (eg Griffiths, 1993; Turner & Horbay, 2004) have concluded that 'addiction' to EGMs is likely to result from the interaction between the player and the machines. An individual's risk for developing a problem is enhanced by a mix of cognitive, social, emotional, biological and/or genetic predispositions (Griffiths & Delfabbro, 2001; Griffiths, 2005). Turner and Horbay (2004) identified a number of myths and erroneous beliefs about slot machines that likely exacerbate these risk factors although Parke and Griffiths (2006, 2007) point out that some of these ‘myths’ are culturally specific depending upon whether the EGMs use ‘adapted logic’ (ie compensation technology) or operate on random number technology.

Par 6.1 While EGMs appear to appeal to many ordinary gamblers, they seem to be particularly attractive to those at risk of problem gambling and to those with a gambling problem. The available research has identified the sort of features that appeal to gamblers (eg fast games, multi-stake, high payout ratio, free games) and that are therefore associated with higher levels of both gambling and gambling-related harm (Parke & Griffiths, 2007).

Par 6.3 Breen (2004) argued that machine gamblers who develop gambling problems do so much quicker than those ‘traditional’ gamblers who develop problems and that forms of gambling that are more rapid, continuous and repetitive are associated with significantly faster onset of problem gambling.

Par 6.4 The belief in the problem generating potential of EGMs is further strengthened by the continuous quality of the game and the presence of the high winning odds including recurrent near wins (Griffiths, 1999; Cote et al 2003). The combination of event frequency, the result of winning or losing, the length of pay-out interval, and the time gap between each winning (or near winning) gamble are said to be structural factors that contribute to the addictiveness of gaming machines (Griffiths, 1993; Parke & Griffiths, 2006).

Par 6.5 Using data from 700 EGMs in New South Wales (NSW) Delfabbro and LeCouteur (2003) found that structural variations between different EGMs were important with multiple line betting and the availability of note acceptors significantly increasing gambling turnover. Players often play maximum lines as they do not want to miss an opportunity to win. For example, players will feel bad if a big win arrives on a line on which they could have bet. This is similar to the psychology of entrapment in lottery numbers (see Griffiths and Wood [2001] and Rogers [1998]).

Par 6.7 McMillan and Pitt (2005) found that some evidence supports a reduction in the size of the maximum bet ($10 [AUD]). Being able to place higher bets may encourage problem and at risk gamblers to increase the size of their bets when they were on a ‘winning streak’ or chasing losses.

Par 6.14 Loss of control is a central feature of problem gambling (May-Chahal et al 2007) and gaming machines are associated with greater loss of control than other forms of gambling.

Par 7.1 There is some research evidence that the accessibility of gaming machines has some association both with the level of gambling and with problem gambling rates. In particular local accessibility has been reported to be relevant probably because many gamblers tend to gamble closer to home.

Par 7.6 their study concluded that a centralised gaming model (ie restricting gaming venues to few locations) was the most likely model for minimising harm.

Now on the basis of this research one would have expected a body dedicated to "Protecting children and vulnerable people from being harmed or exploited by gambling" to have something to say about the current legislation that is causing a great deal of concern to the Methodist Church.

This research was clearly available to the Gambling Commission when on 31 July 2008 Brian Pomeray the "Chairman" wrote a letter to the responsible Minister saying not a word about the proposal to increase stakes and only able bring themselves to say:

"There was however no consensus about the extent to which high-stakes, high prize machines cause gamblers to become problem gamblers".

Mr Pomeray either didn't read, or couldn't bring himself to believe the findings of research that he himself had commissioned.

I hope Mr Pomeray wasn't over influenced at the "working lunch" that he and nine other Gambling Commission members and staff enjoyed on 22 January 2008 at the Amusement Trades Exhibition described as "The world's foremost coin-op and amusement exhibition".

The Apprentice

Ben should have gone

The Gambling Commission (1): the press office

Delighted to see that today's edition of Methodist News once again highlights the proposals to to double the stakes and prize limits for fruit machines.

The Methodist Church believe that making it easier to gamble more during a time of recession is wrong. The new prize limit for fruit machines found in pubs will be more than weekly benefit levels, and children will be able to play on gaming machines and win prizes worth £50.

There is also a risk that this proposal could lead to an increase in problem gambling. The government had committed to protecting children and vulnerable people from being harmed or exploited by gambling.

This is the sort of issue that should be tackled through a Quango called The Gambling Commission set with the task of

Protecting children and vulnerable people from being harmed or exploited by gambling

and

is also responsible for advising local and central government on issues related to gambling.

So what position has the Gambling Commission taken on the proposed legislation? Surely they would have picked up this issue? I thought it would make an interesting mid morning post.

I called the Gambling Commission press office (0121 230 6700) and asked the simple question: "what is the Gambling Commission's position on the proposed legislation".

Having worked in a press office most of my life I expected to be told the answer immediately, it is the sort of information that an on-the-ball press officer holds in their head.

Not so. They would have to get back to me. Two hours later I rang again. They would get back to me by the end of today.

I also asked whether meetings of the Gambling Commission were open to the press and public.

Apparently not, but the press officer wasn't able to give me the details of the legislation that enables such as high profile body working in a sensitive environment (part of its role is Keeping crime out of gambling) to work in secret. It will be interesting to see what they come up with.

It is time to shine some light into the secretive world of Britain's Gambling Commission. Let us hope that we don't find that they are just a little too close for comfort to our friends in the gambling "industry".

The type of people who follow the Guido Fawkes blog

If you really want proof that the people who post comments on the Guido Fawkes bog are very unpleasant specimens of inhumanity go to today's post and scroll down to comment 107

A taste of Easter 2009 in the West Birmingham and Oldbury Circuit

Once again our friends at Warley Woods Methodist Church were up at dawn to dress the cross with flowers for Easter. As far as I know this is the only church in the UK that has this tradition.

If anyone knows of other examples, please let us know and perhaps in future years we can have pictures from around the country.

At City Road this morning we had a full house and our Pauline our preacher urged us to celebrate the risen Lord.

The power of blogging

It looks as though the Easter Sunday papers are going to be filled with stories about the attempt by a former member of the Downing Street staff to use a fake blog (which I discover already moderates posts!) to spread nasty stories about leading Conservatives.

I must say that as a long standing member of the Labour Party I was concerned about some of the suggested stories. One is that a leading Tory has a sexually transmitted disease, the other that another has a family member with mental health issues. Neither is hardly rare in this day and age and if someone does have a medical condition that seems to be a matter for support and prayer rather than a party political point.

My experience in politics tells me that these types of smears are hardly new. The big difference today is that they are likely to be floating around on the internet within minutes and often unchecked.

Sometime after I stood down as an MEP I found that an important part of my pastoral work at church, which I can't go into here as I regard it as confidential, had been thoroughly misrepresented by political opponents. I remember feeling sick to the core that something myself and others had worked at for during ten difficult years for the very best of reasons could be portrayed in such a wicked way solely to discredit me. I was also concerned that confidential information appeared to have been "leaked" from a public body.

This does of course, raise an interesting question about blogs. Do bloggers have power?

Well I started this blog two years ago having seen my neigbour and comrade Bob Piper make brilliant use of his blog to highlight a number of issues. I had also looked in on a number of other Methodist blogs and concluded that there was room for at least one that took an Evangelical and Socialist perspective.

I must admit I didn't think bloggers wielded power until I was blackballed (perhaps a Masonic metaphore here is very appropriate) from membership of the Methodist Church Faith and Order Committee's Political and Social Issues group. Apparently the poor dears did not like the "tone and content" of this blog, bless em.

Other Methodist bloggers refuse point blank to link with this blog, afraid that their readers may be contaminated should they click through. They are not alone in wanting to control the blogshpere

Nowadays I meet Methodist luminaries who assure me that they never a read a word of this blog and shortly after say something that makes it clear they do. On several occasions I have broken stories that have been taken up by the mainstream media. More are in the pipeline -watch this space.

So even within British Methodism blogs have power. That power will grow. The Methodist Recorder is hardly a highway of intellectual discourse and often seems weeks behind the major stories often doing little more than reprinting Church press releases. Blogs offer something different and I suspect that regular readership of all Methodist blogs - not just this one - is rising week on week.

The same will happen in communities. As local papers go - sadly - into the doldrums blogs will become an important of every community - geographic, political, social, economic and spiritual.

Over the next year I am going to review how this blog works. At the moment it is the ultimate vanity publishing, but perhaps we could develope something of a wider significance.

Lichfield, Staffordshire, April 11, 1612 - last burning in England for heresy

Easter Saturday may just be the day to remember those who have died for their faith from whatever theological corner they may occupy.

Exactly 397 years ago today one Edward Wightman, described as a Baptist but more accurately a Unitarian, had the dubious distinction of being the last person in England to be executed for heresy by being burnt alive.

The execution took place in Lichfield the Cathedral town of Staffordshire not far from here.

A sad story. And perhaps one that we should remember again in three years time. Thank God we have moved on from those days and a stark reminder that what started as an argument about faith ended as a painful nasty public death.

It may also be helpful to remind extremists in other faiths that British values mean respecting freedom of religion, not simply insisting on respect for religion.

A story of forgiveness

I was moved to read of this story of forgiveness among London Methodists following the conviction of a local preacher for assault on a child. Some may find the story offensive.

Good Friday - Bearwood 2009

I've just completed a wonderful few days in Cornwall with my youngest son. We did the lot - pasties from Rowes of Redruth, lots of fish landed at Newlyn, walks around the Lizard, Land's End and a challenging sea trip to the Scillies. The only thing is that I am left with a streaming cold that has gone straight to my chest, in fact I was suffering so much this morning that my wife was wondering whether she should call the doctor or the drama critic.

The upshot of it all is that for the first time for many years I wasn't able to join a Good Friday service. My daughter joined the worshippers from all the local churches who converged in the grounds of St Mary's Bearwood and these are some of her shots...



The churches gather



A moment of prayer



The weather doesn't dampen the singing



The cross is lifted high



Both worshipers and passers by are handed traditional hot cross buns with a wrapper that reminds us why we look to the cross, both on Good Friday and every day since.

Finding the family's Cornish roots

Today is the first Monday for many months that I haven't got up at 5.30 am and traveled to London for a week's work and four nights in a Travelodge (hooray). I even had a lie in until just before seven (double hooray!).

Instead I'm taking my youngest son down to find the family's Cornish roots. Last year they had an "ethnic" awareness day at his school. Every one else took in goat curries and chapatis - not my lad he took a pasty (by the way you don't call them "Cornish pasties" south of Bristol) and the familiar black and white flag.

Until I married an ethnic Cornish Methodist my only contact with Cornwall was a family in East London that featured in Keith Pearce and Helen Fry's wonderful book The Lost Jews of Cornwall. It is a fascinating book, very flattering to Methodists and says a great deal about how Jews developed a positive relationship with the local Cornish community despite their isolation from the large conurbations.

Initially we are going to Penzance, staying at a guest house where my wife stayed when she went on a Rob Frost event.

On Wednesday we are hoping to board MV Scillionian III for St Mary's in the Isles of Scilly. I have warned my lad there may be marauding rival bands of Methodists disputing the stationing decision featured on the BBC programme An Island Parish. I did think about calling in the see the local Minister but I think our landfall on the Scillies will be entirely social.

Thanks to the blog of Paul Martin, the Turbulent Cleric, a Cornishman now in exile in distant Bideford, I am aware that Cornwall has its own National Anthem. I researched this (ie a quick look on Google) and the Anthem is not quite what it seems. It records the feeling in Cornwall when local lad Jonathan Telawney, then Bishop of Exeter, was banged up in the Tower of London for resisting the Catholocising efforts of the soon to be deposed King James II.

A century or so later an Anglican clergyman wrote The Song of the Western Man, which, to be polite, contained one of two embellishments. So for anyone missing the blog this week - - click on the You Tube rendition above and sing the words below. This side of the Tamar (I'm writing this from Smethwick), it could make a good hymn tune for certain occasions in a certain sort of church.

Have a great Holy Week.

God is about to do something very special to our Methodist Community.


A good sword and a trusty hand!
A faithful heart and true!
King James's men shall understand
What Cornish lads can do!
And have they fixed the where and when?
And shall Trelawny die?
Here's twenty thousand Cornish men
Will know the reason why!

Chorus

And shall Trelawny live?

And shall Trelawny die?

Here's twenty thousand Cornish men

Will know the reason why!

Out spake their Captain brave and bold:
A merry wight was he:
Though London Tower were Michael's hold,
We'll set Trelawny free!
'We'll cross the Tamar, land to land:
The Severn is no stay:
With "one and all," and hand in hand;
And who shall bid us nay?

Chorus

And shall Trelawny live?

And shall Trelawny die?

Here's twenty thousand Cornish men

Will know the reason why!

And when we come to London Wall,
A pleasant sight to view,
Come forth! come forth! ye cowards all:
Here's men as good as you.
'Trelawny he's in keep and hold;
Trelawny he may die:
Here's twenty thousand Cornish bold
Will know the reason why

Chorus

And shall Trelawny live?

And shall Trelawny die?

Here's twenty thousand Cornish men

Will know the reason why!

There but for the grace of God....

We've only just got round to reading the Review section of yesterday's Observer.

On page three they have a report on the "mystery worshippers" who contribute to the Ship of Fools.

Apparently one Jabez Bunting (geddit?) called in to see our near neighbours at Selly Oak Methodist Church.

The Observer reports that they were given One out of Ten and had a "strange, slightly sub-Christian air".

Reading Mr Bunting's full report it seems The Observer were being kind. I can't help feeling that someone with such a sophisticated knowledge of Methodism to choose a non-de-plume such as Jabez Bunting had an axe to grind (one very similar, as it happens, to mine) so I'm not certain how objective this report is, especially the comments about the Minister, who I'm told is excellent.

However, there's a lot we can learn from this report and I'd be fascinated if a similar report were written about our church, but please leave it until the new connexional year. Meanwhile, breath a sigh of relief....there but for the grace of God.

The cross - Christian symbol or bling?

I often wonder what people of other faiths who have settled in the UK make of "Christian" Britain.

I remember seeing drunk "Christians" on a bus one Christmas singing Hark The Herald Angels Sing being looked at with absolute disgust by a man in a Sikh turban. One of the "Christians" even shouted "OO the **** are you looking at?"

When I see some of the discussion boards as people write about the relationship between Christianity and other faiths I feel utterly embarrassed.

Some Christians claim that it is part of their faith to wear a cross. I am not one of them. Wearing a cross signifies very little and I really don't feel comfortable that many Ministers feel they have to wear vestments and dog collars. The outward expression of a Christian faith starts inside, not by adopting certain items of clothing. At most we should dress modestly and wear headgear as appropriate.

Now a fine old row has broken out in the pages of the Mail on Sunday. A cartoon strip in a government funded magazine for children in care portrays white children wearing a cross as "Islamic phobic" thugs.

As an editor I have always been careful about how I portrayed the cross. Not because of sensitivity on my part but because I did not wish to cause offence to others. For example a few years back I was offered a wonderful picture of some young women dressed as nuns for a sing-along Sound of Music. Sadly one of the "nuns" had a large over the top cross. Some careful layout ensured that the picture was used but no offence was caused.

Similar sensitivity needs to be exercised with other religious symbols and personalities. As a Methodist I can well understand that Muslims feel aggrieved that a building dedicated to gambling is named "Mecca". I wouldn't write a headline referring to somewhere as a "Mecca for followers of [insert name of hobby]", there is just no point in causing offence.

The Mail on Sunday story presents a similar dilemma. Before writing this I did some research and spoke to teenage boys. Apparently among young White and African-Caribbean it is now fashionable to wear the cross or a rosary as "bling", especially those known as "chavs". A few years ago young women wore pentangels, for some it signified an association with the occult, for others it was just a design they fancied.

Within that context it is highly likely that the range of attitudes including hostility to people from non-Christian backgrounds will be expressed, so the magazines cartoon strip may not be off 100% of the mark.

However I think the response of Natasha Finlayson, the Chief Executive of the trust which produced the magazine was inappropriate and insensitive. I'm certain that the picture and page was laid out by a young graphic designer with little experience of these issues. They won't make this mistake again.

Meanwhile, just to put it in perspective I remember the Birmingham Mail running a story about the closure of West Midlands County Council.

The councillors and senior staff held a modest though "emotional" party at ratepayers expense. Several close friends of mine were pictured on the front page looking the worst for wear. The party was held on Wednesday 31 March. The following Friday was Good Friday. The headline in the lunchtime edition, on Maundy Thursday read "The Last Supper".

This headline was written by experienced white male subs (I knew several of the backbenchers then and am aware of their social background). The switchboard went wild with calls and the headline was changed in later editions.

I think the Mail on Sunday story points to cock up rather than conspiracy and I think Ms Finlayson would have done well to acknowledge that.

Healing hands or heavy hands? (2)

Since posting "Healing hands or heavy hands?" last Thursday I have been in extensive correspondence with the people concerned.

I think the situation has now been resolved so I am removing the original post to enable further discussion.

Something to think about

For those keen to "bring back the birch" or to make an accommodation with some aspects of Sharia Law, this video from The Guardian vividly brings home what corporal punishment means.

I am old enough to remember corporal punishment being "administered" in school, in fact I was punished in this way on many occasions, though never as severely as this. Let us hope we never return to those days.

Time to communicate

My story on Thursday created a great deal of activity both on this blog and privately on email.

I have made my views clear in a situation that seemed tailored made to generate misunderstanding. We will now draw a line under that discussion but hopefully learn some lessons from the course of events.

Until last week I, a local preacher of some twenty years standing, had no idea that we had a specialist District adviser on healing - he actually serves in the next circuit. Nor had any of my colleague local preachers with whom I have since discussed the matter.

It was the accident of an impressive circuit evangelism enabler sending out a message requiring a "caveat" that I found we even had a Methodist luminary on that aspect of ministry here in our own District.

In short, an important aspect of the District's work was communicated by the accident of rebuttal and exception. As far as I know, no one at District level has ever bothered to circulate local preachers and churches with details of what this adviser does and any training he may offer. I now wonder what other specialists we have available in the District.

Now go on the Birmingham District website. Try to ignore the now sad and dated look and feel with the lurid red type on pink background. Where are the details of these District advisers?

There is a whole jumbled page of future events. Why aren't these circulated by email to each and every one of us in the District? We are talking about a few clicks of a button. Go onto the site map - this morning, as every morning for several years - it is still "under construction".

Compare and contrast the look and feel of the District website (or even the equally poor one that I set up on some spare space for my church) with that of the Vineyard Church, of who's healing ministry Methodism officially has reservations.

The Vineyard's look and feel is contemporary, most of the information is bang up to date and it is clear from their Facebook page and website that they take communication seriously.

If you were an 18 year old student arriving in Birmingham and you undertook a web search for a church to welcome you, where would you go? The church with the average Methodist website or the congregation that looks as if it is in touch with contemporary life (even promoting Christian speed dating - can you imagine speed dating in your average Methodist Circuit?).

It all used to be so different. One of the reasons why Methodism was so successful is that the Wesley's worked on communication both internal and external.

Go back to the 1780s. There was no universal postal service, no internet, no telephone. The Methodist network of circuit preachers - in America known as "circuit riders" - was used to carry publicity and letters around the country. Letters would be left at one society in the knowledge that they would be picked up by another preacher and taken to their final destination.

Notes about meetings and circuit plans were distributed hand to hand. A circuit steward would attend a circuit meeting. He (yes he would have been a "he") would be given information for the local preachers based at his church, which would then be distributed to the recipients the following Sunday. A wonderfully simple system ideal for the 1780s.

Last Sunday our church steward, like many church stewards throughout the country so I'm not making a local point, handed each local preacher a note that she had been given to distribute at the circuit meeting. The system Methodism used in the 1780s is still being used in 2009. What on earth are we doing still handing round bits of paper? I can already hear some say "But we always do it that way".

Some Methodist luminaries may feel that we have little to learn from churches like the Vineyard about the healing ministry, but they certainly have a lot to teach us about communication.

It is time for change, time for humility.

Time to grow up and spread the good news.

Time to stop "playing" the sad little game called Methodist Church.